The calm before the storm

A new Yale University study has found that the US jobs market has yet to experience serious disruption from artificial intelligence. Nearly three years after ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, the data shows no “discernible disruption” to employment patterns. In fact, the pace of change looks sluggish compared to the upheaval of the 1940s and 50s, when war-driven industrial shifts redefined work for an entire generation.

On the surface, this might feel reassuring. The feared tidal wave of AI-related job losses has not arrived. But this is not the moment to relax. If history teaches us anything, it’s that technological revolutions move slowly at first — then gather unstoppable momentum. The early years of the computer, the internet, and even electricity were marked by hesitation and patchy adoption. Then, once workflows, skills and business models caught up, everything changed.

The same will happen with AI. The question is not if, but when. And the winners will be those who start preparing today.

Why the study says disruption looks slow

The Yale Budget Lab and Brookings Institute analysis highlights several reasons why AI’s labour impact is not yet visible:

• Lag in adoption: Computers didn’t reshape offices until a decade after their release. AI is following a similar trajectory — the tools exist, but most firms have not integrated them deeply.
• Occupational inertia: Shifts in the “job mix” (the spread of roles across sectors) take time. Many industries are still adjusting to digitisation more broadly, so AI change is layered on top of older challenges.
• Sectoral variation: Industries like media, film-making and accountancy are seeing hints of AI-driven change, but the economy as a whole looks steady.

In other words: we are in the early innings. Just because the economy looks stable now does not mean it will remain so. The next five years are likely to look very different.

Fear vs. action: the leadership dilemma

The loudest voices in AI today often swing between two extremes: alarmist predictions of mass job loss, and reassuring claims that AI is just another tool. Both perspectives miss the core truth: AI is transformative, but its impact depends on how leaders respond now.

Fear of disruption is real. The CEO of Anthropic recently warned that half of all entry-level office jobs could disappear within five years. For owner-managers and professional CEOs alike, such statements fuel anxiety: should they invest now, or wait and see?

Waiting is the bigger risk. Delaying adoption doesn’t insulate companies from AI — it leaves them exposed. Competitors who experiment early will be faster, leaner and more attractive to talent. The businesses that hesitate risk being left with outdated processes, rising costs and shrinking relevance.

Taking the lead: what companies must do now

The data may suggest AI has not yet disrupted work. But leaders should treat this as a window of opportunity. The time to prepare is before the wave breaks. Here are four steps forward-looking businesses can take:

1. Train teams today

AI anxiety among staff often stems from fear of being replaced. The antidote is empowerment. By introducing AI tools now, and training employees to use them effectively, companies can turn fear into confidence. Staff see AI not as a threat but as a partner that frees them from tedious work.

This requires practical investment: workshops, pilots, and on-the-job experiments. Early adopters are already reporting that teams save 20+ hours a week by automating admin tasks. Those gains compound into happier staff and faster growth.

2. Adopt practical, not flashy, AI

AI doesn’t need to mean robots in the office. Practical adoption starts with automating repetitive tasks: summarising meetings, processing invoices, generating reports. These “small wins” prove value quickly, build trust with employees, and lay the foundation for deeper change.

The businesses thriving in 2030 won’t necessarily be those with the flashiest AI projects — they’ll be the ones that embedded AI seamlessly into daily workflows, reducing costs and freeing capacity.

3. Lead from the top

AI adoption cannot be delegated to IT alone. Leaders must set the tone: curiosity, experimentation, and a clear narrative about how AI supports growth and protects jobs. Just as the internet age produced forward-looking digital CEOs, the AI age will reward leaders who make technology a cultural priority.

4. Plan for the long game

The Yale study reminds us that revolutions unfold over decades. That means leaders need both immediate wins and a strategic horizon. Consider not only today’s tools but also how AI will reshape your sector in 5–10 years. Those who invest in scalable systems and resilient work cultures now will be positioned to ride the curve instead of being flattened by it.

The risk of waiting too long

History is clear: adoption lags can create false comfort. When personal computers emerged in the 1980s, sceptics pointed to their slow office uptake. Within two decades, no serious business could function without them. The same happened with the internet. Early dismissals of “dot-com hype” gave way to complete reinvention of business models.

AI is poised to follow this pattern — only faster. The technology is already more capable than many realise. It can write, analyse, code, predict, and connect across platforms. Once businesses figure out how to harness it securely and consistently, adoption will accelerate rapidly.

Those who wait for disruption to be obvious will already be too late.

From fear to leadership

Yes, AI is scary. It threatens to reshape industries, workflows and careers. But fear is not a strategy. Leadership is.

The message from Yale’s study should not be: “Don’t worry.” It should be: “Now is the time to lead.”

Business leaders have a choice. They can view today’s apparent stability as an excuse to postpone, or as a rare gift — a period to act decisively, with room to experiment, train and transform. By the time the occupational shifts become undeniable, the leaders who prepared will be thriving, and the rest will be scrambling.

A closing thought

AI adoption is not about machines replacing people. It’s about reshaping work so people can do what they do best: create, decide, and lead. The companies that win the next decade will be those that start now, guiding their teams confidently into the AI era.

The wave is coming. It is not crashing yet. But it will. And the leaders who paddle first will be the ones riding it when it breaks.